Through the previous 12 months, I used to be typically requested what I believed would occur to Vancouver’s housing market. My response was easy. There isn’t a Vancouver housing market.

There’s a downtown highrise market which differs from the Fraser Valley townhouse market. Equally, there are rental housing markets and possession markets catering to first-time consumers, move-up consumers and last-time consumers.

That stated, business associations and consultants typically generalize about total gross sales, housing begins and costs.

On the finish of 2024, the B.C. Actual Property Affiliation (BCREA) predicted realtors would get pleasure from a 13 per cent gross sales soar in 2025 pushed by decrease mortgage charges and authorities insurance policies. Costs have been anticipated to rise modestly.

Nevertheless, resulting from U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs introduced in early February, it quickly turned obvious gross sales have been falling far wanting expectations and BCREA revised its outlook.

It’s now estimated that 2025 would be the 12 months throughout which the Decrease Mainland skilled the bottom variety of house gross sales this century.

Whereas house gross sales dropped off considerably right here, it was even worse in Toronto. In October, solely twenty-five new condominiums have been bought within the metropolis. To place this in perspective, it’s lower than the variety of gamers on the unforgettable Toronto Blue Jays baseball workforce.

Trump’s tariffs additionally impacted new housing begins. In January 2025, MLA Canada, one in all B.C.’s most profitable venture advertising companies, predicted 125 condominium tasks would launch throughout the Decrease Mainland.

Nevertheless, by 12 months finish, MLA tracked solely forty-nine launches, sixty per cent under their forecast and solely half the Decrease Mainland’s ten-year common. Nevertheless, a few of these have been subsequently placed on maintain or transformed to rental.

MLA has not issued a 2026 forecast. Nevertheless, it expects that the approaching 12 months may look lots like final 12 months. For one factor, buyers are virtually non-existent resulting from declining rents and a plethora of presidency insurance policies that discourage funding.

Moreover, Rennie Intelligence, estimates there may very well be 3,400 accomplished and unsold condominiums in the marketplace by 12 months finish, and plenty of extra 1000’s nonetheless below development however not but bought.

In 2026, 1000’s of purpose-built rental items are additionally scheduled for completion which may additional carry down rents. Whereas that is excellent news for renters, it’s dangerous information for builders.

Dozens of different condominium and rental tasks have approvals in place however should not continuing since they’re not financially viable. This is because of a low stage of shopper confidence, extreme municipal charges and excessive curiosity and development prices.

To encourage a few of these tasks to get underway, Vancouver not too long ago agreed to a myriad of measures that embrace reductions in growth charges and engineering necessities, and deferred funds of charges.

I agree with this method, since charges charged to condominium builders are often handed on to new owners. It appears misguided to count on those that don’t personal houses to finance the prices of development, slightly than those that already personal houses. Particularly since based mostly on 2021 Census knowledge analyzed by SFU’s Andy Yan, almost 50 per cent of Vancouver owners haven’t any mortgage.

Whereas condominium residing provides many advantages, individuals shifting out of those mortgage-free single-family homes are sometimes apprehensive about shifting right into a growth that could be run by a strata council whose president could have wished to be prime minister of Canada however ended up overseeing eighteen townhouses.

For these causes, I’ve been urging governments to make it simpler to construct ‘fee-simple,’ individually owned townhouses as a substitute for condominium townhouses. Though commonplace in Toronto and elsewhere around the globe, they’re not often developed right here.

The identical applies to duplexes. Many individuals purchase a duplex with out realizing they’re shopping for right into a strata growth. Despite the fact that it’s made up of solely two strata heaps, the house owners are required to abide by the principles and rules of the Strata Property Act.

There’s a ‘fee-simple’ various to the duplex — a ‘semi-detached’ home — one of the crucial frequent types of housing within the U.Ok. and elsewhere around the globe. However like fee-simple townhouses, they won’t be constructed right here till municipalities make it simpler to subdivide properties into smaller heaps and set up lowered allow and hook-up charges.

Now that the provincial authorities is aggressively mandating small-scale, multi-unit housing all through the province, fee-simple townhouses and semi-detached houses may very well be engaging options to strata-titled four- and six-unit multiplexes.

Though fee-simple townhouses didn’t change into well-liked in 2025, one other kind of housing which I’ve typically promoted in these year-end columns did lastly acquire reputation. I consult with factory-built modular housing which was acknowledged by Prime Minister Mark Carney as an efficient method to construct new houses.

Whereas we is not going to possible see the 4,000 modular house begins promised by the Prime Minister, I agree with him and federal Housing Minister Gregor Robertson that manufacturing facility manufacturing provides many advantages by way of development high quality, pace of erection and price effectiveness.

I want to conclude with one thing fully totally different.

Final 12 months, a number of reviews surfaced linking lowered fertility charges to an absence of suitably designed and reasonably priced household housing. The end result was that Canada’s fertility fee hit a brand new document low of 1.25 youngsters per girl. This didn’t shock me.

For years, younger {couples} have instructed me they weren’t having youngsters as a result of they may not afford household pleasant two- or three-bedroom flats. Whereas a home with a basement mortgage-helper can be good, that was fully out of their value vary.

To deal with this concern, twenty-five years in the past throughout the planning of SFU’s UniverCity group, I proposed designing flats with a second or third bed room with its personal door to the hall that would function a basement suite equal.

Initially, the suite may very well be rented out as a mortgage-helper. Over time, because the household grew, it will revert to a second or third bed room.

Happily, the Metropolis of Burnaby agreed to vary its zoning so {that a} proportion of the flats may embrace these lock-off suites.

Former Tyee journalist Monte Paulsen, who sadly died in 2024, referred to as them

‘basement suites-in-the-sky’

and so they have subsequently change into fairly well-liked. An rising variety of municipalities now permit them.

In 2026, it’s my hope that extra builders will think about incorporating lock-off suites of their residence buildings, particularly since lenders now acknowledge the rental revenue when figuring out mortgage quantities. This might permit extra households to get pleasure from future vacation seasons with their youngsters.

On this comfortable observe, my finest needs for a wholesome and affluent 2026.

Michael Geller FCIP, RPP, MLAI, Ret. Architect AIBC is a Vancouver-based planner and actual property advisor. He additionally serves on SFU’s adjunct school. You may attain him at geller@sfu.ca and discover his weblog at www.gellersworldtravel.blogspot.com.